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Why Is USD/CAD Holding Strong Above 1.3700? | Middle East Tensions Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

    • The Is XRP still worth investing?US Dollar strengthens amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty following Israel's strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

    • Crude oil prices surge to five-month highs, potentially limiting Canadian Dollar weakness despite broader USD strength.

    • Federal Reserve maintains cautious stance, keeping rates unchanged while signaling potential future policy adjustments.

    The USD/CAD exchange rate continues its bullish trajectory for the third consecutive trading session, hovering near 1.3710 during Thursday's European session. This upward movement reflects growing investor preference for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly following escalating military actions between Israel and Iran that have destabilized Middle Eastern markets.

    Recent developments saw Israeli forces targeting Iran's Arak heavy water reactor complex, prompting strong responses from Iranian leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed national resistance against foreign intervention, while US officials characterized Iran's nuclear activities as destabilizing to regional security. These geopolitical tensions have triggered classic risk-off market behavior, benefiting traditional safe-haven currencies.

    Market participants are closely monitoring the US Dollar Index (DXY), which currently trades near 99.10, reflecting broad-based USD strength. The Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting reinforced this trend, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures that may delay anticipated rate cuts. The central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while the Summary of Economic Projections indicated approximately 50 basis points of potential easing through 2025.

    Interestingly, the Canadian Dollar may find offsetting support from surging energy prices. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have climbed over 1% to approach $74 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since early 2025. As the primary crude exporter to the United States, Canada's currency often moves in tandem with oil market dynamics, creating competing forces in the USD/CAD pair.

    The current market environment presents traders with complex crosscurrents - while geopolitical risks favor USD appreciation, rising commodity prices could bolster the resource-linked Loonie. This tension suggests potential for increased volatility in the currency pair as market participants weigh these opposing factors against evolving macroeconomic conditions and central bank policy trajectories.

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